英国《每日电讯报》:中国--世界新统治者(中/英)

邓小平不曾支持这种宣传。这位现代中国建筑师警告弟子们要保持头脑冷静，保持低调。政治局忘了他的建议。随着奥运将至，中国在世界舞台上前所未有的高调。关于中国如何改变世界的信息突然狂热起来，出版商无法自控。

　　此类书籍大多数断言未来属于中间王国（Middle Kingdom）。甚至世界银行都曾预测中国将在不到二十年内超过美国成为世界卓越的经济体。然而，值得回顾的是，在八十年代也有很多关于日本将主导全球的书籍。

　　《经济学人》前编辑、日本专家艾默特（Bill Emmott）关注中国与日本、印度的关系。他提出一种令人向往的可能性，“生机勃勃的商品、服务和资本单一市场延伸开去，从东京到德黑兰，无处不在。”然而，《对手：中、印、日角力将如何塑造我们的未来十年（Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade）》一书指出亚洲“微笑外交”背后的三国演义，这种权力斗争可能破坏它们共同的成就。

　　日本前外相麻生太郎表示，“中国和印度互相憎恨了一千年，为何认为现在会有所不同？”印度外交部一位“非常高级”的官员表示，“你必须明白，我们（中国和印度）都认为未来是属于我们的。我们不可能都是对的。”

　　政治不信任催生了军备竞赛，三国都急于打造更大规模的海军。中国潜艇偷偷进入日本水域，而印度从欧洲购买两艘航母，而且在建造第三艘。艾默特支持中国去年军费增长近18%，达230亿英镑；政府热衷于让解放军获得新装备。

　　由于西藏、台湾和朝鲜这些明显的引火点变得更加明显，艾默特担心这些国家和西方之间的沟通渠道不足。“冷战时期，美国和苏联之间”由更好的沟通联系。

　　日本也试图通过增强印度来抵消中国在地区日益增长的主导权。如今印度是日本最大的海外援助接收国。中国反过来伸张自己在印度洋的影响力，保障航线的安全，它的船只从非洲运来石油和金属，并把它的廉价商品运往欧洲。中国主席胡锦涛定期访问拉美、非洲、甚至塞舌尔，展现中国到处攫取资源的战略。

　　但这种洞悉不多。艾默特的书的问题在于二手资料。无法透露我们目前还不知道的事情。

　　相反，卡纳（Parag Khanna）的《第二世界：帝国与新全球秩序的影响力（The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order）》则有很多来自五十个国家的第一手报道，他认为这些国家将决定我们的未来。这位30岁的伦敦经济学院博士生为一个智囊机构工作，实际上走遍了他的“第二世界”：东欧、中亚、拉美、中东和亚洲。

　　他在旅行中得出一个论点：世界正分裂成三个帝国，美国、欧洲和中国寻求拓展它们在发展中国家当中的影响力。

　　他指出欧盟扩张如何自我更新永存，因为新成员担心变成欧盟的遥远边界，试图把它们的邻国也拉进来。

　　尽管他的散射办法没能深度报道任何一个国家，但他的侧面冲击往往比艾默特的分析有更大的效果。

　　卡纳认为，尽管十年前亚洲忙于处理中国崛起，但如今有了不同的感觉。中国变得越自信，与邻国的合作就越多。他援引一位马来西亚战略家的话：“亚洲国家渐渐不那么把中国视为威胁，特别是由于它的崛起给它们创造了重大经济机遇，而且已经变成亚洲文化自豪感的聚焦点。”（作者 Malcolm Moore，此文为书评，评论的是Bill Emmott的《Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade》以及Parag Khanna的《The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order》）

　　译文为摘译，英文原文：http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/mai...19/boemm119.xml

China: the new rulers of the world

Malcolm Moore reviews Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade by Bill Emmott and The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order by Parag Khanna

Deng Xiaoping would have never stood for this sort of publicity. The architect of modern China warned his disciples always to "keep a cool head and maintain a low profile". The Politburo has forgotten his advice.

With the Olympics approaching, China has never had a higher profile on the world stage. Barely a day passes without some startling and barely plausible fact: apparently a town the "size of London" is appearing on the Pearl River Delta every year.

Publishers have been unable to contain themselves over this sudden frenzy of information about how China is transforming the world. The piles of books about China seem to be growing at the same pace as those new megalopolises.

Most of these books pronounce that the future belongs to the Middle Kingdom. After all, even the World Bank has predicted that China will overtake America as the world's pre-eminent economy in less than two decades. It is worth remembering, however, that there were plenty of similar books about Japan's imminent global domination in the 1980s.

Bill Emmott, a former editor of The Economist and an expert on Japan, has looked at China in relation to Japan and India, the other emerging Asian powers. He raises the delicious possibility of "a single vibrant market for goods, services and capital, one that stretches all the way from Tokyo to Teheran".

advertisementHowever, Rivals points out that behind the "smile diplomacy" of Asia, a power struggle between the three could undermine their mutual success.

Emmott's argument is best illustrated when he does some basic reporting.

　　Taro Aso, Japan's foreign minister, tells him: "China and India have hated each other for a thousand years. Why should things be different now?"

　　Meanwhile, a "very senior" Indian official at the foreign ministry says: "The thing you have to understand is that both of us [China and India] think that the future belongs to us. We can't both be right."

　　This political distrust has given birth to an arms race, with all three countries rushing to build larger navies.

　　Chinese submarines have sneaked into Japan's waters, while India has bought two aircraft carriers from Europe and is building a third. Emmott notes that China increased its defence spending by almost 18 per cent last year, to £23 billion; the government is keen to keep the plump generals of the People's Liberation Army on side with new toys.

　　With obvious flashpoints becoming ever more apparent in Tibet, Taiwan and North Korea, Emmott worries that the channels of communication between the countries and the West are poor. There were better communication links "between America and the Soviet Union during the Cold War".

　　Japan is also trying to offset China's increasing dominance in the region by helping to strengthen India, which is now its largest recipient of overseas aid. Japan financed the building of the New Delhi Metro and is now paying for a freight route connecting Calcutta, Delhi and Bombay.

　　In turn, China is imposing itself in the Indian Ocean, where it needs to secure safe routes for its tankers to bring in oil and metals from Africa and take its cheap trinkets to Europe.

　　The news that the country's president, Hu Jintao, regularly tours Latin America, Africa and even the Seychelles rarely makes the papers, but it helps to illuminate China's strategy of grabbing resources wherever it can.

　　But this sort of insight is rare. The problem with Emmott's book is that it is what journalists would call a "cuts job" - a thesis culled from secondary sources. It is elegantly written and strong on economic analysis, but it tells us little that we do not already know.

　　By contrast, Second World by Parag Khanna is brimming with enthusiastic first-hand reportage from the 50 countries he says will determine our future. Khanna, a 30-year-old PhD student at the London School of Economics who works for a think tank, actually toured through his "second world": Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia.

　　"I never left a country," he promises, "until I had developed a sense of its meaning on its own terms, until I had assimilated a blend of perspectives from cities, villages and landscapes, based on conversations with a wide variety of people, including officials, academics, journalists, entrepreneurs, taxi drivers and students."

　　This is the sort of reporting that newspapers can no longer afford to send correspondents to do, and his book is compelling and exciting, even if his bold claims sometimes betray his inexperience.

　　The thesis that emerges from his travels is that the world is being split into three empires, with the US, Europe and China seeking to extend their influence among developing countries.

　　He points out how the expansion of the European Union is self-perpetuating, since new members, wary of being the furthermost border of the union, try to convert their neighbours to the cause. Ukraine, for example, "has even sent maps to Brussels showing Ukraine shaded European blue - Mitteleuropa, not Osteuropa".

　　Even if his scattergun approach fails to cover any country in depth, his glancing blows often have greater impact than Emmott's considered analysis.

　　While Asia may have been preoccupied with China's emergence 10 years ago, Khanna argues, today it feels differently. The more confident China becomes, he says, the more it will co-operate with its neighbours.

　　He quotes a Malaysian strategist: "Asian nations are gradually perceiving China as less of a threat, especially since its rise creates major economic opportunities for each of them, and has become a rallying point of Asian cultural pride."